CATI Studio
Our in-house call centre with 100+ CATI stations enables rapid telephone polling on representative samples.
Research Solutions
Electoral Polls in Poland
Representative samples, transparent methodology, and likely voter models that predict real outcomes
The Weight of Getting It Right
Electoral polls are the most visible — and most scrutinised — form of public opinion research. When poll results appear on the evening news, millions of voters recalibrate their expectations. Political parties adjust their strategies. Media narratives shift. Getting it right is not just a methodological challenge — it’s a public responsibility. Fieldstat brings scientific polling rigour to every electoral, social, and political research project.
Dual-Methodology Polling
Methodology that withstands scrutiny. Our polls use dual-methodology collection: CATI (telephone interviews on landline and mobile samples) for demographic representativeness, and CAWI (online surveys on our NPB panel) for speed and cost efficiency. Results are weighted by age, gender, education, urbanisation, and region to match Census (GUS) population structures. We apply likely voter models to filter declared intent from actual voting probability.
Beyond Margin of Error — Systematic Challenges
The margin of error is not the margin of truth. For N=1,000, the statistical margin of error is ±3.1pp at 95% confidence. But poll accuracy depends on more than sample size: nonresponse bias (who refuses to participate?), the spiral of silence (shy voters hiding preferences), late-deciding voters, and turnout uncertainty all introduce systematic error. We address these challenges with advanced weighting, likely voter filters, and multi-method triangulation.
Social & Political Research Beyond Elections
Beyond elections. Fieldstat conducts social attitude research, public policy evaluation, referendum opinion measurement, and political sentiment tracking for government institutions, NGOs, media, and academic researchers. Our polling infrastructure supports both one-time studies and continuous tracking programmes with quarterly or monthly waves.
Methodological Transparency
Full transparency. Every Fieldstat poll is published with a complete methodological note: method, sample size, fieldwork dates, margin of error, weighting procedures, and question wording. We believe polling transparency is a professional and civic obligation.
Market in Numbers
±3.1pp
margin of error for N=1,000 at 95% confidence
CATI + CAWI
dual-methodology collection
3–5 days
standard poll turnaround
Full note
methodological transparency on every poll
Sources: CBOS, PTBRiO, ESOMAR polling standards
Polling Methodologies
| Method | Speed | Cost | Strength | Challenge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
CATI (telephone) |
Medium (3–5 days) |
Medium |
Demographic representativeness |
Declining response rates |
CAWI (online) |
Fast (2–3 days) |
Low |
Large samples, speed |
Panel bias, self-selection |
CATI + CAWI hybrid |
Medium (3–5 days) |
Medium |
Best of both, triangulation |
Requires mode adjustment |
Face-to-face (CAPI) |
Slow (1–2 weeks) |
High |
Highest representativeness |
Cost, logistics |
Sample Research Questions
What are the current voting preferences nationwide?
Which social topics have the greatest impact on voter decisions?
Jaki jest poziom zaufania do instytucji publicznych?
How do voters rate government actions in key areas?
Jaka jest frekwencja deklarowana i jej struktura demograficzna?
Why Fieldstat?
75,500-Member Panel
Our NPB panel supplements CATI with fast, cost-efficient online polling for broader coverage.
Likely Voter Models
We filter declared intent through voting probability models to improve prediction accuracy.
Benefits
- Representative nationwide samples weighted to Census data
- Dual CATI + CAWI methodology for maximum accuracy
- Likely voter models that filter intent from probability
- Results delivered in 3–5 business days
- Full methodological transparency on every poll
- Advanced weighting for age, gender, education, region, and urbanisation
- Continuous tracking programmes with quarterly or monthly waves
- Experience in parliamentary, presidential, local, and referendum polling
Applications
Parliamentary and presidential election polls
Local election and mayoral polls
Referendum and public policy opinion research
Political party preference tracking
Social attitude and value research
Public institution trust and approval measurement
Implementation Process
1
Poll Design
We establish the polling question, sample design, methodology (CATI/CAWI/hybrid), and weighting strategy.
2
Fieldwork
We conduct telephone and/or online interviews on representative samples, monitoring response rates and demographics in real time.
3
Data Weighting
We weight results by demographic structure, apply likely voter models, and adjust for known biases.
4
Results Delivery
You receive poll results with full methodological note, margin of error, and demographic breakdowns.
Frequently Asked Questions
How quickly can you execute a poll?
Standard polls (N=1,000): 3–5 business days. Express polls (N=500): 48 hours. Flash polls on our NPB panel: 24 hours.
How much does a poll cost?
Standard CATI poll (N=1,000): from PLN 15,000. CAWI poll (N=1,000): from PLN 8,000. Hybrid CATI+CAWI: from PLN 18,000.
Do you apply likely voter models?
Yes. We filter declared voting intent through probability models based on past voting behaviour, stated certainty, and political engagement indicators.
Can you do continuous polling/tracking?
Yes. We offer quarterly and monthly political tracking programmes that monitor party preferences, approval ratings, and social attitudes over time.
How accurate are electoral polls in Poland?
Well-designed polls using mixed-mode methodology (CATI + CAWI) with proper weighting typically achieve accuracy within ±2–3 percentage points. Systematic challenges include shy voter effects and late-deciding voters.
What is the difference between a poll and a forecast?
A poll measures current declared preferences. A forecast applies statistical models, historical turnout data, and demographic weighting to predict election outcomes.
What sample size is needed for a national poll?
N=1,000 for ±3.1% margin of error at 95% confidence. Regional breakdowns require N=1,500–2,000.
Industry Sources & Standards
External sources and industry organizations related to this research method:
Related Sectors
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