Multi-Method
We combine quantitative modelling with expert judgement and scenario analysis — not just one approach.
Research Solutions
Economic Forecasting in Poland
Data-driven economic and market forecasting that turns uncertainty into scenario-based strategic planning
Strategy Needs a Forecast
Strategy without forecasting is gambling with a business plan attached. Economic forecasting applies statistical modelling, expert judgement, and scenario analysis to predict market developments: how fast will your category grow? What will demand look like in 3 years? Which economic scenarios could disrupt your business? What is the most likely path — and what are the credible alternatives?
Quantitative, Expert-Based & Scenario Approaches
Three forecasting approaches. Quantitative modelling: time-series analysis, regression models, and econometric forecasting based on historical data and macroeconomic indicators. Expert-based forecasting: Delphi panels and expert interviews that incorporate specialist judgement about future developments. Scenario analysis: structured development of 3–4 credible future scenarios (best case, worst case, base case, disruption case) with quantified implications for your business.
What We Forecast
What we forecast. Market size and growth (value and volume), demand trends (category consumption, purchase frequency), macroeconomic impact (GDP, inflation, exchange rates on your business), competitive dynamics (market share evolution, new entrant probability), regulatory impact (upcoming legislation, compliance costs), and technology adoption curves.
Poland & CEE Specialisation
Poland and CEE specialisation. Our analysts specialise in Polish and Central European markets — combining access to GUS, NBP, Eurostat, and industry data with expert networks across 20+ sectors. We understand the specific dynamics of transition economies, EU cohesion policy effects, and regional growth patterns that generic global forecasting models miss.
Scenarios, Not Single Numbers
From forecast to decision. Our deliverable is not a single number — it’s a range of scenarios with quantified probabilities and business implications. You receive a base-case forecast, optimistic and pessimistic scenarios, identified risk factors, and trigger points — enabling scenario-based strategic planning rather than single-point-estimate planning.
Market in Numbers
3 approaches
quantitative, expert, scenario
3–5 years
typical forecast horizon
3–4 scenarios
base, best, worst & disruption cases
20+
sectors forecasted in Poland
Sources: GUS, NBP, Eurostat, IMF, Fieldstat
Forecasting Approaches
| Approach | Data Source | Strength | Limitation |
|---|---|---|---|
Time-series modelling |
Historical data |
Objective, reproducible |
Assumes past patterns continue |
Econometric modelling |
Macro indicators + historical |
Captures causal relationships |
Model specification risk |
Expert Delphi |
Specialist judgement |
Captures non-quantifiable factors |
Subjective, potential bias |
Scenario analysis |
All sources + expert judgement |
Handles uncertainty explicitly |
Scenarios are not predictions |
Sample Research Questions
How will demand for our products change in the next 12 months?
What macroeconomic scenarios are most likely?
How will demographic factors affect our market in the long term?
Which product category has the greatest growth potential?
How will regulatory changes affect industry profitability?
Why Fieldstat?
Polish Market Expertise
We understand the specific dynamics of Polish and CEE markets that generic global models miss.
Scenario-Based
We deliver scenarios with probabilities and business implications — not single-point forecasts.
Decision-Ready Scenarios
Trigger points, risk factors, and strategic implications — input ready for board-level decision-making.
Benefits
- Multi-method forecasting: quantitative + expert + scenario
- Market size and growth forecasting (value and volume)
- Macroeconomic impact analysis on your business
- Scenario planning with 3–4 credible future cases
- Expert Delphi panels for specialist-informed predictions
- Technology adoption curve forecasting
- Regulatory impact assessment
Applications
Annual strategic planning and business case development
Market entry and expansion feasibility assessment
Investment decision and capital allocation support
Product demand and category growth forecasting
Regulatory and policy impact scenario planning
Technology and innovation adoption forecasting
Implementation Process
1
Forecasting Scope
We define the forecast horizon, variables, scenarios, and strategic questions to answer.
2
Data Collection
We gather historical data, macroeconomic indicators, and industry-specific metrics from GUS, Eurostat, and sector databases.
3
Modelling & Expert Input
We build quantitative models and conduct expert Delphi panels to inform forecasts and scenario development.
4
Scenario Development
We construct 3–4 scenarios with quantified probabilities, risk factors, and trigger points.
5
Strategic Forecast Report
Base-case forecast, scenario analysis, risk assessment, and strategic implications for planning.
Frequently Asked Questions
How far ahead can you forecast?
Standard: 3–5 years. Short-term demand forecasting: 1–2 years. Long-term scenario planning: 5–10 years.
How much does forecasting cost?
Desk-based market growth forecasts from PLN 15,000. Full multi-method forecasts with Delphi panels from PLN 40,000.
How accurate are market forecasts?
Single-point forecasts are inherently uncertain. That’s why we deliver scenario ranges with probabilities — enabling planning for multiple futures.
What methods are used for economic forecasting?
Time-series modelling, econometric models, expert Delphi panels, and scenario analysis. We typically combine quantitative models with expert judgement for the most robust forecasts.
How far ahead can economic forecasts reliably predict?
1–2 year forecasts have the highest accuracy. 3–5 year horizons are useful for strategic planning but carry wider confidence intervals. Beyond 5 years, scenario analysis replaces point forecasts.
Do you provide multiple scenarios?
Yes. Every forecast includes 3–4 scenarios: base case, optimistic, pessimistic, and a disruption scenario — because the value of forecasting lies in preparedness, not prediction.
Industry Sources & Standards
External sources and industry organizations related to this research method:
Related Sectors
This solution is most frequently applied in the following industries: